After just a week, average gas prices have returned to their decline, with the national average falling 2.6 cents from a week ago to $3.76 per gallon today according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 11 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is down 14.3 cents from a month ago but stands 36.3 cents per gallon higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has risen 2.3 cents in the last week and stands at $5.34 per gallon.
“After rising the week prior, the national average has changed directions again, posting a modest weekly decline with prices dropping in a majority of states. The decline has been partly driven by Great Lakes states, where prices fell by 15-25 cents per gallon due to an improvement in the refining situation, and also oil prices, which fell back under $90 per barrel last week,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “With oil prices remaining volatile, the outlook is murky, but I’m hopeful in the lead up to Thanksgiving we’ll see prices declining in more states, while others may not be quite as lucky. Regardless, we’ll still be seeing the most expensive Thanksgiving Day prices on record.”
OIL PRICESIt was a busy week in oil markets, which started last week above $90 for WTI and nearly $99 for Brent crude with some strength due to optimism that China would back off stringent Covid policies, a weakening dollar, and continued supply tightness. Oil eventually saw a drop of over three and a half dollars last week, closing the week back under $96 for WTI and under $95 for Brent. Oil prices remained range bound, failing to break over key levels, indicating that it will take time potentially to break out of the current $85-$95 range. In early Monday trade, WTI was down $1.06 per barrel to $87.90 per barrel, down from $92.60 to start last week. Brent crude was down 99 cents to $95 per barrel, a drop from last Monday’s $98.56 fetch.
According to Baker Hughes, last week’s U.S. rig count was up by 9 rigs to 779 and was 223 rigs higher than a year ago. The Canadian rig count was down 9 rigs to 200 and was 32 rigs higher than a year ago.
OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTSLast week’s report from the Energy Information Administration showed a 3.9 million barrel build in crude oil inventories, which are 3% below the five year average for this time of year, excluding the decline in the SPR. Domestic crude oil production jumped 200,000bpd to 12.1 million barrels per day. Gasoline inventories saw a 900,000 barrel decline and are down 6% from the five year average for this time of year. Distillate inventories fell by 500,000 barrels, but critical supply flowed into the Northeastern U.S. as the days of supply rose to 26.0 days. Implied gasoline demand, EIA’s proxy for retail demand, jumped 352,000 barrels per day to 9.01 million, a number that’s very likely overstated, according to GasBuddy metrics. Refinery utilization increased by 1.5 percentage points to 92.1%, a sign that high prices continue to lead refiners to continue high rates of processing. Overall supply is down by 9.5 million barrels from last year, but including the SPR are down 222.6 million barrels in the last year.
FUEL DEMANDAccording to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy card, U.S. retail gasoline demand fell last week (Sun-Sat) by 0.4%. Broken down by PADD region, demand fell 5.2% in PADD 1, rose 5.1% in PADD 2, rose 0.5% in PADD 3, fell 1.5% in PADD 4, and fell 3.4% in PADD 5.
GAS PRICE TRENDSThe most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $3.39 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $3.59, $3.49, $3.79, and $3.99 rounding out the top five most common prices.The median U.S. gas price is $3.59 per gallon, down 10 cents from last week and about 17 cents lower than the national average.The top 10% of stations in the country average $5.23 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.99 per gallon.The states with the lowest average prices: Texas ($3.06), Georgia ($3.14), and Mississippi ($3.17).The states with the highest average prices: California ($5.35), Hawaii ($5.14), and Nevada ($4.95).
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